DANERYS TARGARYEN
The first scenes of Dany's ADWD storyline (the shepherd presenting the bones of the child Drogon killed and Dany chaining her other two dragons) were included in Episode 10 of Season 4. Even with the first big moments covered, I don't think that the storyline will progress beyond the end of ADWD this season, as her storyline provides the perfect climactic scenes for Episode 9 and a series of short scenes that will fit perfectly into Episode 10.
THE SONS OF THE HARPY
Based on scene descriptions and casting information, it's clear that Season 5 of GoT will follow Dany's ADWD storyline for the most part, despite last year's off-hand comment, which seemed to dismiss the Sons of the Harpy (SotH) storyline as "revenge killings" that were nothing to be concerned about. The early indication of the "revenge killings" dismissal seemed to be that S5 would take Dany's story in a completely different direction, but the inclusion of the Stalwart Shield scene indicates that this is not the case.
Dany's storyline in ADWD is set almost entirely inside the walls of Meereen, as GRRM explores the internal conflict between Daenerys the Conquerer and Daenerys the Ruler. The SotH are an insurgency group in Meereen, allegedly comprised of individuals associated with the Great Masters who ruled Meereen before Dany's arrival (I say allegedly because the identity of those responsible for the attacks has yet to be revealed by the end of ADWD). The insurgents / terrorists are targeting freed slaves and Unsullied guards, killing an escalating number of innocents each night in an attempt to end Dany's rule of the city.
Dany tries several methods of dealing with the SotH, including torturing suspects and the taking of hostages (who she refuses to kill out of a sense of mercy) from powerful houses that were suspected of involvement in the SotH. What eventually works to quell the attacks is Dany's betrothal and eventual marriage to Hizdahr zo Loraq, a move that also seems to bring a temporary peace with the other enemy forces from Slaver's Bay who represent the external threat to her rule (more on that later).
One notable SotH attack that seems to be confirmed in the show is the attack on Stalwart Shield, an Unsullied soldier who frequented brothels in order to be held by the women who work there. With casting information seemingly confirming the inclusion of this storyline, it has to be assumed that the show will be sticking fairly closely to the ADWD storyline, though the absence of other key Meereenese characters makes this difficult to forecast.
There are a number of key characters in Dany's ADWD story that seem to have been written out of the show. As far as named characters go, Hizdahr and Yezzan are the only ones from this storyline that have been officially cast at this point, as far as I know. Hizdahr was introduced early in Season 4 and seems to be playing a very different character on the show than he was in the ADWD. Hizdahr is introduced in ADWD as a frequent petitioner from a powerful house who is lobbying Dany to re-open the fighting pits (think gladiators in ancient Rome) that were closed when she took Meereen. On the show last season, Hizdahr's character was significantly altered, becoming a much more sympathetic character and illustrating to Dany that even the worst of her enemies can have redeeming qualities. It's hard to believe that this character change will be ignored going forward. When it was announced that the character of Yezzan will be a prominent Meerenese citizen (in ADWD, he's a military commander from Yunkai) who suffered financial losses when the fighting pits were closed, I had assumed that he would be assuming part of Hizdahr's role this season (but Hizdahr will still marry Dany). That went out the window when it was revealed that Yezzan will eventually purchase Tyrion and Jorah. While I still expect him to be the petitioner who nags Dany to re-open the pits early in the season, I think at some point he will leave Meereen and defect to Yunkai (how else could he purchase slaves?). If Yezzan won't be filling multiple roles in Dany's court, this leaves a lot of unanswered questions about how the storyline will be adapted.
Other than Hizdahr, the most significant Meereenese character in ADWD is the Shavepate, a rival of Hizdahr's and another potential suitor for Dany (though certainly a less valid one strategically). The Shavepate is one of Dany's chief supporters and advisors throughout and his absence from the storyline will cause massive problems, as his actions drive much of Dany's story and Barristan's story after Dany leaves Meereen. I think that the show will fold the Shavepate's role in the story (always advising more violent solutions that are more oppressive of the Great Masters) into Daario Naharis' character, giving an established character an expanded role.
Also missing is the Green Grace, a key figure in Meereen and possibly one of the leaders of the SotH. The Green Grace advises Dany on Meereenese culture and suggests that she marries Hizdahr. It's a relatively small role, so it's possible that it could be an unnamed character or a role so small that the casting isn't announced. It's also very possible that Hizdahr will be given an expanded role, acting as the Meereenese ambassador as he did in Season 4, representing Meereen's interests in the show.
So what's my best guess for how the show will adapt the SotH storyline this season? One of the first scenes will be the statue of the Harpy being torn down on Dany's orders, emboldening the freedmen, but infuriating the Meereenese. In episode 1 or 2, the Stalwart Shield scene, where an Unsullied will be murdered in a brothel will occur in response. There will be more subsequent attacks and eventually Dany will consent to marry Hizdahr zo Loraq and re-open the fighting pits. The roles played by the Shavepate and the Green Grace will either be eliminated or folded into existing characters, with Hizdahr and Daario having expanded roles from the books.
THE MEEREENESE KNOT
Meereen was one of the primary settings in ADWD. With the exception of her final chapter, every Dany chapter in the book took place in or around Meereen, but Meereen was also an important destination for numerous characters in ADWD and AFFC, particularly Tyrion, Aegon, Quentyn Martell, Victarian Greyjoy (and some theorize Euron Greyjoy) and Archmaester Marwyn. Meereen is also the destination for the armies of Qarth, Yunkai, New Ghis, Volantis and various sellsword armies hired by the city-states of Slaver's Bay. By the end of ADWD or the preview chapters provided for The Winds Of Winter, all of these travelers have arrived in Slaver's Bay with the exception of Marwyn.
First of all, let's discount the characters that will definitely (or probably) be dropped this season. Quentyn Martell doesn't exist in the show's continuity and neither will his journey to Meereen or his actions upon arrival. Even if Victarion and Euron Greyjoy eventually play a role in the show, they are unlikely to have a role in Dany's Season 5 story (the less said about the laughable Daario = Euron theory, the better). There isn't a Kingsmoot, Euron and Victarion haven't been cast yet, Balon is still alive, Dany already has the ships that Victarion would be delivering if he were in the show. They may factor into Cersei and Margaery's story in Season 5 and they may have a role to play in Season 6, but that remains to be seen. Aegon hasn't been cast and if the story plays out the way that I think it will (see my posts on Tyrion and Dorne), his role will be completely superfluous and thus eliminated. If Marwyn is included in the show, it won't be until after Sam reaches Oldtown, so I think, if anything his story will be delayed until Season 6, though he may depart at the end of Season 5. On a sidenote, I think that Marwyn will be the one who eventually convinces Dany to travel to Westeros, but it won't happen until at least halfway through The Winds Of Winter.
I've already discussed Tyrion's journey to Meereen and I'll address his role in Dany's story soon, but first I'll go into the armies that will be laying seige to Meereen this season. Unlike in ADWD, I don't expect to see Xaro Xhoan Daxos again. In ADWD, Xaro appears as an envoy from Qarth to offer Dany the ships that she would need to sail to Westeros. In truth, Xaro is Dany's last chance of avoiding a war in Slaver's Bay. This will be dropped from the show because Xaro is presumed dead (though I've always had a hail mary theory about him not being dead because who would make a safe that couldn't be opened from the inside?) and because the envoy from Yunkai (maybe he'll make another appearance?) has already made the same offer to Dany and the show isn't likely to repeat itself. The Yunkai storyline in Season 3 played out the same way it did in ASoS, so I expect them to be the primary antagonists in S5. There's no reason not to include the other city-states in the Yunkish army, as one sentence would suffice to mention that they're involved, making the army opposing Dany much more threatening. Tyrion will be stopping in Volantis on his way to Meereen, so I would expect their involvement to be made clear while he's there, particularly if the scene with the widow of the waterfront is included. I expect Volantis to be included, as it will likely play a huge role in the outcome of the Battle of Meereen, especially if the Greyjoys don't play a role. The sellsword armies will likely be generic sellswords as most of the purpose of highly specific sellsword companies (getting Quentyn to Meereen, switching sides on Dany back and forth) have been eliminated or condensed on the show.
I expect that the flamboyant aspects of the attacking armies (the Herons, the slaves that are chained together, etc.) will be replaced by generic CGI armies and I think that much of the siege will be taking place either off-screen, in updates delivered in council meetings with Dany or in CGI shots designed to show the massive forces arrayed against Dany. Most of the Yunkish siege that we see in ADWD is a result of Tyrion's story and it seems as though Tyrion's story is going to skip straight from being sold into slavery to being Dany's advisor in short order. Also, CGI and off-screen mentions are a lot cheaper than filming with thousands of extras, so it seems like a logical way to save budget.
The possibility also exists that the Yunkish invasion may be written out of the show to an extent. Tyrion and Jorah can be sold into slavery somewhere outside of the proximity of Meereen, negating the need for a siege setting for this scene. The trailer proves that the Sons of the Harpy will be staging a climactic attack in the fighting pits of Meereen this season (negating the purpose of the Hizdahr marriage story arch, but oh well) and that may be used as a substitute for the siege of Meereen, for this season at least. This would be disappointing, but understandable from a budget perspective.
TYRION, JORAH, DANY AND CO.
Season 4 ends with Dany chaining her dragons, but very much remaining in control of Meereen and Slaver's Bay, having sent Daario, Hizdahr and the Second Sons to Yunkai to settle the uprising against her ending of the slave trade. In Meereen itself, Dany's chief advisors are Ser Barristan Selmy, her handmaiden Missandei and the captain of the Unsullied Grey Worm. Outside of Meereen, but soon to enter / re-enter the story are the exiled Jorah Mormont and Tyrion Lannister.
There's no reason to change Selmy's role this season. I'm sure he'll take on some of the responsibilities of Meereenese characters that have been written out of the show (investigating the SotH in place of the Shavepate, perhaps), but for the most part there won't be much difference between book-Selmy and show-Selmy. Interviews have indicated that Missandei will have a larger role this season than she did in ADWD, becoming a personal confidant and sort of right-hand woman to Dany this season. This makes sense, since she'll be accommodating the role of Irri (killed in Season 2 by Doreah) into her own role. I also expect the show to expand on her chaste romance with Grey Worm, since the show added scenes last year specifically to that end. Grey Worm will also have a larger role this year than he does in the books. I doubt that the hostages Yunkish storyline will be included this season, as I expect that the battle itself will be simplified greatly, so Grey Worm will be free to be involved more in the battle plans to defend Meereen and the SotH investigation.
Daario and Hizdahr will probably be back in Meereen early in Season 5, if not right from the start. If their diplomatic / military mission to Yunkai goes well, it guts a lot of the main storyline for the second half of the season, so it's unlikely that will be the case. Daario and Dany have already consumated their "business relationship", so doing so won't be a major plot point in Season 5, though her marriage to Hizdahr certainly wlil be. I expect them to fill the devil-angel roles in Dany's internal struggle between peace (Hizdahr) and war (Daario) this season as they did in ADWD, with Hizdahr taking up a large portion of the Meereenese roles that won't be included this season.
A romance between Grey Worm and Missandei was introduced in Season 4 and all indications from the trailer are that this storyline will continue in Season 5. The trailer includes a shot of GW lying down and Missandei approaching his face. It's unclear whether this is a romantic setting or if GW is in some sort of catatonic (or dead, though it's unlikely that would be shown in a trailer) state, but it does seem as though the connection between the two will continue this season. It is unsettling that GW isn't in any of the photos at the fighting pits, but that could just be a coincidence.
I expect that the pale mare's arrival (possibly foretold by a severely altered vision from Quaithe) to take place midway through the season. The introduction of a plague forces the issue of the battle, whereas Meereen could otherwise hide behind their walls and wait out the Yunkish siege. This sort of plot device can be easily introduced with a scene or two and drives Dany's story forward to the inevitable climax.
Also driving towards the unraveling of the Meereenese Knot in ADWD are the arrival of several outside influences, all of whom will be trying to bring Dany to Westeros. As previously discussed, these won't include Quentyn Martell or the Greyjoys, but they will include two characters who are in a collision course with Dany in ADWD but have yet to arrive by the end of the book, Tyrion Lannister and Jorah Mormont. While Tyrion and Jorah are in Meereen and take place in the climactic re-opening of the fighting pits, they never interact with Dany before she departs on Drogon. This will be very different in Season 5.
The most shocking piece of leaked information this year (and possibly in the history of the show) was a series of images showing Tyrion sitting on a dais with Dany, Hizdahr and Missandei, watching Jorah participating in a gladiator fight in the fighting pits. The reason that this is shocking is that it proves that Dany will not only be aware of Tyrion's presence in Meereen, but she will meet with him and accept him as an advisor. The placement on the dais is not a coincidence. The re-opening of the fighting pits is a wedding gift that Dany gives to Hizdahr (the image also proves that they will get married) and placing him in a position of high honor (along with her husband and her confidant Missandei) indicates that he is an important advisor (the absence of chains indicates that he's not a prisoner or a servant in disguise as some have suggested). So how did this happen?
Leaks from filming show that Tyrion and Jorah will be captured and sold into slavery (by AAA) to Yezzan. Other leaks indicate that they will escape and sneak into Meereen. I don't know how or when they escape from slavery or exactly how they introduce themselves to Dany, but my theory is that it will be handled similarly to the way that Quentyn Martell introduced himself in ADWD. During a scene of Dany holding court, Tyrion and Jorah will step forward from the shadows. Tyrion will announce himself and explain his intentions, Jorah and more importantly Barristan Selmy will vouch for his identity and after a rousing speech wherein Tyrion explains that he is the perfect ally for Dany, with his knowledge not only of Westerosi politics and the Lannisters, but also his marriage to Sansa Stark, his allies in Dorne and his knowledge of dragons. Basically, Tyrion will give Dany the pitch that he gave Jon Connington on why he would be a good advisor to Dany. Add in the fact that he was convicted of murdering Joffrey and he did, in fact, murder Tywin Lannister and I believe that Dany will take him into her service with little hesitation. Things will not go quite so well for Jorah, however, as he'll be taken to the dungeons. He'll be spared an immediate execution for violating his exile, but to earn his way back into Dany's graces, he'll have to prove himself at the re-opening of the fighting pits.
A SHORT-LIVED PEACE
Game Of Thrones has a long history of disastrous and otherwise horrible wedding scenes and while the ramifications of Dany's wedding to Hizdahr are eventually tragic and earth-shattering, the wedding itself goes off without a hitch, luring viewers into a false sense of security for the epic disaster yet to come. Of course, any experienced viewer of the show knows better, but I still think a few people will be fooled into thinking that Jorah's fight in the pits is the key moment in the scene, but readers of ADWD know that it's the reappearance of Drogon that's the key.
Dany marries Hizdahr zo Loraq in order to achieve peace inside the walls of Meereen so that the city can present a united front against the armies of Slaver's Bay massing outside their walls. As an added bonus, the marriage, along with some concessions from Dany regarding the return of the slave trade outside of Meereen will secure a temporary peace with Yunkai and their allies.
As a wedding gift to Hizdahr, Dany agrees to allow the re-opening of the fighting pits in Meereen, a gladiator venue where warriors (previously slaves) would fight to the death for fame and glory (and now, for a share of the prize money). In ADWD, Tyrion and Penny perform their jousting routine and Dany inadvertantly saves their lives when she stops the slavers from unleashing lions to devour them. Several fights take place before a climactic pit fight raises such a commotion that it attracts Drogon back to the fighting pits. When he starts eating one of the pit fighters and generally killing everyone in sight, the peace Dany achieves has come to an end. The chaos eventually ends when Dany successfully mounts Drogon, who flies off into the Dothraki Sea.
In Dany's absence, Hizdahr does his best to hold together the peace accord with the Yunkish, but the writing is on the wall and war is inevitable. Everything comes to a head by the end of ADWD with two key events, the Yunkish decision to begin flinging Pale Mare corpses into Meereen and Quentyn Martell's accidental / intentional freeing of the other two dragons and his fiery death.
I expect Tyrion's arrival in Dany's court to happen around Episode 7 (it may even be the final scene of Episode 7 or whatever episode it takes place in). The wedding to Hizdahr would then take place in Episode 8 or early on in Episode 9, leaving the events at the fighting pits to be the climactic "holy shit!" moment for Episode 9 and Season 5. This will be set up like the Red Wedding, with an ominous tone throughout and the storyline getting just a little bit more attention than it should, but not enough to tip off that the big event will be taking place in Meereen (there will be competing storylines in King's Landing and Braavos just as there was Kingscrown in the same episode as the Red Wedding).
Like Joffrey's wedding in Season 4, I expect Dany's wedding and the re-opening of the pits to dominate just a little extra screen-time, with a slow build up to a shocking event. There will be some mild entertainment in the pits, substituting for the dwarf jousting that won't take place on the show and some minor fights that will serve as undercards before Jorah's climactic fight for his life. I don't expect that the poisoning sub-plot will take place (no Strong Belwas and no Shavepate equals too many missing elements for the storyline to be included) on the show. During or after Jorah's fight, the Sons of the Harpy will stage a massive attack on the fighting pits, as evidenced by the trailer. This attack will cause a massive panic, but it will be nothing compared to Drogon's return to the pits in response to the uproar.
I think that Jorah will survive Drogon's return (but die later on) and I think that it's possible that Hizdahr could die in the chaos that ensues (possibly being murdered by the SotH). Using the battle at the Wall in Season 4 as an example, someone important has to die (Pyp and Grenn) as a consequence of the climactic event in order to sell that the event had consequences. The story still needs Dany and Tyrion for the endgame and Barristan Selmy is still needed for the battle of Meereen. That leaves Jorah, Daario, Hizdahr, Missandei and Grey Worm as possible candidates. While it's possible that Missandei and Grey Worm might die (and them being built up as characters that we love actually makes it more likely that they die tragically), I think that Hizdahr is the more likely candidate because it would quickly free Dany of her obligations to Meereen, end the peace accord with the SotH and Slaver's Bay and put Tyrion and Selmy in a position of power and authority to defend Meereen against the invaders, which I think is the direction that the show will take for the rest of Season 5 and much of Season 6, while Dany is in the Dothraki Sea.
Why do I think Jorah will survive Drogon's return? Because I think he'll die later this season, in Episode 10, freeing Dany's other dragons. The dragons have to be freed and it pretty much has to happen in Season 5, as it's more of a season-ending climax than a season-opening catastrophe. This is made especially true since the dragons were chained up at the end of Season 4 rather than the beginning of Season 5. In ADWD, Quentyn frees the dragons in a desperate attempt to win Dany's hand. He frees the dragons, but dies in the process in an awesome, Jurassic Park-esque way that is custom-made for television. Quentyn isn't in the series, but someone has to free the dragons. Tyrion has nothing to gain from freeing the dragons and he needs to survive this season. It would be similarly out of character for Selmy (who I think will die during the Battle of Meereen), Grey Worm and Missandei. Hizdahr (if he's still alive) fears the dragons and would never free them, so if we operate on the assumption that the dragons must be freed as the climax of Dany's story in Meereen and to set up the battle in Season 6 and we operate on the assumption that an important character must free the dragons and die in the process, Jorah is the only logical choice left. It's been established in the past that Jorah fears the dragons, but given his station at the end of Season 4 and the position he'll be in by the end of Season 5, he'll be desperate enough to try and die for his efforts. I don't think Jorah will survive until the end of The Winds of Winter, so it's not a huge narrative shift to have him die earlier in the story, particularly since his role as an advisor could be filled by Tyrion from this point forward in the series. It's also very possible that Daario Naharis could be the one to die freeing the dragons. A leaked script (which may be BS) indicates that Daario is upset because Dany won't (or can't) unleash her dragons on Yunkai. While this plot point is borrowed from Brown Ben Plumm, Daario won't defect the way that Plumm did (leaked images indicate he'll be by Dany's side in the fighting pits), but he might try to set the dragons free to impress her, the way that Quentyn does in ADWD.
I expect Selmy to be ruling as a sort of Hand of the King while Dany is absent from Meereen with Tyrion, Daario, Missandei and Grey Worm advising him (along with any other survivors). I expect the SotH to resume their attacks and for Yunkai to begin flinging Pale Mare corpses over Meereen's walls to force the battle to happen ASAP. The Meereenese aspect of Season 5 will end with Jorah's death and Selmy's and Co's discovery that the dragons have been released. I expect we'll see some sort of attack on the pyramids as the dragons establish their roosts there as the season ends.
Dany herself will also have scenes in Episode 10. You can leave her disappearance as a cliffhanger for an episode or two, but not for an entire season (especially not for a 40-week off-season period). This is especially true with my projected cliffhanger regarding Jon Snow closing out the season. One of the "Big 4" (Dany, Jon, Tyrion, Arya) can be MIA or presumed dead at the end of the season, but not more than one, in my opinion. I imagine we'll see either two shorter scenes or one extended scene in Episode 10 where Dany is alone in the Dothraki Sea before she encounters a khalasar led by one of the bloodriders who abandoned Khal Drogo (obviously not the one who Drogo killed in Season 1, but one of the others will substitute fine without 99% of fans noticing or caring). It's even possible that Dany and Drogon might respond to the situation immediately, something that hasn't happened yet in ADWD. Something is simple as a squint of the eyes or a vengeful smirk on her face could be enough to tip off what happens next (my guess... fire and blood). I don't think Season 5 will end with a Dany scene (I think it will be Jon's murder), but this will take place towards the end of Episode 10.
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR DAENERYS TARGARYEN'S STORY:
Season 5 will open with the demolishing of the Harpy statue and the attack on Stalwart Shield at some point during Episode 1, launching the Sons of the Harpy storyline. During Episode 1 and 2, Dany will deal with the ramifications of the SotH and Yunkai and Slaver's Bay will declare war against Meereen. Through the middle of the season, increased activity by the SotH and the beginning of the Yunkish siege on Meereen will prompt Dany to arrange a betrothal with Hizdahr zo Loraq. Around Episode 7, Tyrion and Jorah will present themselves in Meereen and be brought before Dany, who hears Tyrion's epic speech and is persuaded to allow him to advise her, though Jorah will still need to prove himself. Dany and Hizdahr will be married in Episode 8 or 9 and the fighting pits will re-open, with Jorah fighting for his life in order to earn his way back into Dany's good graces. During or after Jorah's fight in the pits, the Sons of the Harpy will stage a massive attack on the fighting pits, causing chaos and drawing Drogon to the fighting pits, causing mass devastation and the death of Hizdahr zo Loraq.
Dany will mount Drogon and the two will fly away into the Dothraki Sea. Barristan Selmy will rule in Meereen in Dany's absence with help from Tyrion, Missandei and Grey Worm while the SotH amplify their attacks and Yunkai prepares to attack Meereen. A deseperate Jorah Mormont attempts to free Dany's dragons, only to get killed for his efforts. Yunkai attempts to end the siege at Meereen by flinging corpses infected with the Pale Mare over the city walls, forcing Meereen to prepare for a battle that will start in Season 6. Season 10 will close with Dany wandering in the Dothraki Sea before being confronted by a khalasar led by one of Khal Drogo's former bloodriders.
Next week: Arya Stark
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