CERSEI LANNISTER
THE VALONQAR PROPHECY
Cersei Lannister is one of the "stars" of AFFC. AFFC marks the first time that she has been a POV character in the series and she provides most of the King's Landing (KL) story for AFFC and ADWD (Jaime also has KL chapters in the first half of AFFC, but he departs for the Riverlands midway through the book). Her POV opens with her learning of the death of her father, Tywin, at the hands of her despised brother Tyrion. With this murder happening in such close proximity to the death of her eldest son Joffrey (whom she believes was also murdered by Tyrion), Cersei's mental state is deteriorating rapidly into paranoia and delusion, a mental state only made worse by a prophecy she was told as a child, which seems to be coming true despite (or mostly likely because) of her best efforts. Throughout the course of AFFC, details of the prophecy in question are slowly revealed in dreams and flashbacks, but I expect that GoT will show most, if not all, of the prophecy at the start of S5.
As a young girl, Cersei attends a fair with her friends Jeyne Farman and Melara Heatherspoon, who goad her into having her future told by a maegi (like Mirri Maz Duur) that they refer to as Maggy the Frog. Cersei, who dreams of marrying Rhaegar Targaryen, asks Maggy whether she'll marry the Prince (Rhaegar) and how many children they'll have. Maggy tells her that she won't marry the Prince, she'll marry the King (by whom she means Robert Baratheon) and that she'll have three children, but he'll have sixteen. Maggy also foretells that Cersei will be Queen "until there comes another, younger and more beautiful, to cast you down and take all you hold dear". Cersei comes to believe that the prophecy refers to Magaery, though many fans believe that the yonger Queen is actually Dany or Sansa or possibly even Arianne Martell (my preferred theory). She goes on (unsolicited) to give her the following prophecy regarding her children:
"Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds, And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you."
It's this prophecy that motivates Cersei's actions for much of her life, but especially during the events that will be covered in S5.
The Valonqar prophecy (VP) tells Cersei that all three of her children will be crowned and die before Cersei is killed by the valonqar, a Valyrian word that translates to "little brother". Throughout her life, the details of the VP (along with Maggy's prophecy that Melara would die the night of prophecy) begin to come true. She marries Robert after he becomes king and while she can't verify how many children he has, she has three children of her own. When Robert dies, Joffrey is crowned and his death, which she believes to be at the hands of Tyrion, leads her to begin taking actions that she believes will prevent the rest of the prophecy from coming true, starting with the attempted elimination of the person that she believes to be the Valonqar, her little brother Tyrion.
There are many different theories about who the valonqar who kills Cersei is, with Tyrion being the most obvious candidate from Cersei's perspective and Jaime (who is Cersei's twin, but was born after her) being the fan favorite (other theories say that it could be any number of other candidates, so long as the candidate is someone's younger brother or part of an order that calls themselves a brotherhood), but for the narrative of S5, it's only important to know that Cersei believes that it's Tyrion because this belief is beginning to drive her mad, with disastrous results for all of Westeros.
A source on the internet claims to have the details of the storyline for Episode 1 and the source claims that the episode will begin with a pre-credits cold opening of Cersei dreaming about the VP. While internet sources are sketchy to begin with and I doubt the authenticity of the rest of the leak, opening S5 with this scene makes perfect sense.
Maggie the Frog and characters that fit the description of young Cersei and Melara have been confirmed for S5 and given that the KL storyline in Season 4 ended with Tywin's death, it makes perfect sense for S5 to open with the immediate aftermath of that event. The show has famously avoided flashbacks (which are prevalent in the books) to this point and a big deal has been made out of S5 featuring the first flashback in the show's history. Putting this particular flashback (Young Cersei and Melara visiting Maggy) at the very beginning of the season puts us immediately into Cersei's mindset, which is important as her actions drive most of the events south of the Neck in Season 5. I believe that the season will open with Cersei dreaming about the prophecy (which will be revealed in full, though I don't know if she kills Melara during the dream or at all) and waking up to hear the bells that indicate that the body of Tywin Lannister has been found.
A CONFEDERACY OF DUNCES
The death of Tywin Lannister and the young age of King Tommen leaves a power vacuum in King's Landing that is filled by Cersei in her role as the Queen Regent and it's possible that she might be the absolute worst person for the job. Her father famously (in a scene new to the show) told Cersei that the reason he didn't entrust her to contribute more to ruling the Seven Kingdoms was because she wasn't as smart as she thinks she is, and he couldn't be more right, as it turns out. In AFFC, Cersei surrounds herself with toadies, pushes away anyone who challenges her ideas, makes enemies at every turn and generally screws up with every decision that she makes.
AFFC opens with Cersei and Jaime investigating Tywin's murder, with both coming to the correct conclusion that Tyrion committed the murder and Varys helped him escape (of course, Jaime's role in the escape is suspected by Cersei, but never known for sure). The investigation also turns up a special coin from the Reach that is allegedly tied to Olenna Tyrell. Most readers theorize (and it's virtually confirmed in ADWDF) that this coin was planted by Varys to contribute to the collapse of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance and it certainly does help to turn Cersei against the Tyrells (not that she needed the help).
At Tywin's funeral, Cersei begins to alienate the Tyrells by denying Mace Tyrell the position of Hand of the King and giving Garth Tyrell the job of lord treasurer (in place of Tyrion) that Tywin had promised him, giving these positions instead to her toadies Harys Swyft (after Kevan Lannister turns her down) and Gyles Rosby. She also appoints Orton Merryweather as justicar (and begins a "close" friendship with his wife Taena, who is almost certainly a spy, either for the Tyrells or more likely for Varys) and Aurane Waters as grand admiral (to prevent the job from going to Paxter Redwyne, a Tyrell bannerman) to the Small Council and names Qyburn the new Master of whisperers in place of Varys.
Shortly after Tywin's funeral (and at the urging of Mace and Olenna Tyrell), Tommen and Margaery Tyrell are married, though the wedding can be annulled at any time as Tommen is too young to consummate the marriage. After the ceremony, Cersei arranges for pyromancers to burn down the Tower of the Hand, in part because of the events that happened there in ASOS, but also in part because she believes that Tyrion and Varys may still be hiding in the hidden passages in the Tower (she is probably right about Varys, though Tyrion is long gone), displaying the first signs of a paranoia that drive her decisions for the rest of the book.
A COMEDY OF ERRORS
With her Small Council in place, Cersei begins to take a series of actions, both official and in secret that will tear the Seven Kingdoms in two and quickly lead to her on downfall in ways both tragic and hilarious (the second reading of her chapters in AFFC reads like a slapstick horror movie). Thinking that the High Septon was an agent of Tyrion's (which was partially true), Cersei has Osney Kettleblack murder him. After Gregor Clegane died of the wounds that Oberyn Martell inflicted on him, Cersei arranges for Balon Swann to deliver Gregor's skull to Doran Martell and bring Princess Myrcella, her betrothed Trystane Martell and Doran Martell back to King's Landing, secretly plotting to have Trystane murdered by agents posing as outlaws allied with Tyrion. Her choice as grand admiral, Aurane Waters is unpopular, as he is a bastard and the highborn distrust bastards (in this case they're right, more on that later), as is her decision to fund the creation of a new fleet of ships by suspending payment of the debts owed to the Iron Bank and the Faith of the Seven until after the conclusion of the wars. Upon hearing that Davos Seaworth is treating with Wyman Manderly as Stannis' Hand, Cersei offers to free Manderly's heir (a prisoner at Harrenhal) if he executes Davos (not really a blunder on her part, but important to Davos' ADWD story). She also arranges to send 100 men to the Night's Watch with the secret mission of assassinating Jon Snow on the belief that Jon was allying the NW with Stannis.
That's a lot of conspiring for one Small Council meeting, but Cersei saves the craziest plot for the end of her fourth chapter in AFFC. Cersei instructs Osney Kettleblack (a spy of Littlefinger's who also spied on Cersei for Tyrion that hasn't been introduced or cast on the show yet) to seduce Queen Margaery, making both parties guilty of treason. Cersei intends to have Margaery executed for the treason and have Osney sent to The Wall for the crime, though his real mission is to execute Jon Snow. After executing Jon Snow, Cersei promises to give Osney a pardon and a Lordship. She even hints that she might marry him after the completion of his mission.
Later, because she doesn't have enough enemies, Cersei begins to plot to humiliate Loras Tyrell, have Bronn (who named Lollys's bastard son "Tyrion") killed, sends Jaime to the Riverlands to resolve the siege at Riverrun and sends Mace Tyrell to lay siege to Storm's End (which is actually a good idea... and Jaime's).
The blunder that affects Cersei most directly occurs when she travels to the Gret Sept of Baelor to treat with the new High Septon, a pious man who is often referred to as the High Sparrow, because he was the leader of a group called the "sparrows", who champion the smallfolk and represent the lower class of those sworn to the Faith. In exchange for officially recognizing Tommen as the King and forgiving the crown's debts to the Faith, Cersei allows the Faith to restore the Faith Militant and the Poor Fellows, giving members of the Faith the ability and authorization to use force to defend themselves and enforce the laws of the Faith throughout Westeros.
After news of Euron Greyjoy's invasion of the Shield Islands reaches King's Landing, the Tyrells demand that the Redwyne fleet be sent to the Reach to protect Tyrell lands. As the fleet is currently being used to lay siege to Dragonstone, Cersei seizes on the opportunity to send Loras Tyrell to Dragonstone to hasten the siege so that the fleets can be freed to defend Highgarden. Loras does lead the charge to take Dragonstone successfully, but he is (allegedly) mortally wounded in the process and is expected to die soon. With Loras at death's door, Cersei moves forward with a plan to replace him in the Kingsguard (Qyburn provides the candidate, an unknown knight who is almost certain a Frankenstein version of the remains of Gregor Clegane) and use the High Septon to eliminate Margaery. In her final move, Cersei commands Ser Osney to go to the High Septon and confess to sleeping with the Queen (this is technically true as he does sleep with Cersei before confessing, but not Margaery), kickstarting the investigation into Margaery's "treasons".
And then it all goes to hell.
Margaery is arrested by the Faith, but when Cersei visits her at the Sept of Baelor, she discovers that the High Septon has been interrogating Osmund Kettleblack, who has confessed to sleeping with Cersei (and denies sleeping with Margaery) and murdering the previous High Septon on her orders. The High Septon, empowered by the newly resurgent Faith Militant and Poor Fellows, orders that Cersei be arrested and detained until trial. She's taken to a cell and tortured with sleep deprivation for two days until Qyburn is allowed to visit her.
Qyburn reveals that Kevan Lannister has taken over the regency, the Tyrell armies are marching on King's Landing for Margaery's trial and the realm is currently be governed by Harys Swyft and Pycelle. He also reveals that Aurane Waters has stolen the royal fleet and was possibly heading north to join Stannis (a Winds of Winter preview chapter indicates that he's actually in the Stepstones, ruling as a new pirate king). Cersei has previously been informed that her plan to murder Bronn ended up with him as the Lord of Stokesworth (and aware that she tried to have him killed), but she's not yet aware that her decision to stop repaying the Crown's debt to the Iron Bank has caused them to fund Stannis' rebellion or that her plot in Dorne has been discovered, causing Doran Martell to send two of the Sand Snakes to King's Landing, which will doubtlessly end in blood-shed. Desperate for a champion, she writes a letter requesting help from Jaime, but he ignores her request, effectively ending their relationship. Fortunately for Cersei, one of her plots appears to be working in her favor, as Qyburn informs her that her champion, Ser Robert Strong (again, Frankenstein Gregor) is ready to defend her at her trial and he's eligible to do so thanks to the death of Arys Oakheart in Dorne.
Prior to her trial, Cersei is forced to walk from Baelor's Sept to the Red Keep naked and shorn of all body hair as atonement for her sins. During the walk, Cersei begins to hallucinate, seeing Tywin, Ned Stark, Sansa Stark and her direwolf Lady, Tyrion and Maggy the Frog. Cersei collapses at the door of the Red Keep, where she is picked up by her champion, Ser Robert Strong. Cersei's trial by combat and Margaery's trial before the Faith will be some of the key events of The Winds Of Winter.
A Dance With Dragons ends with Kevan Lannister responding to Aegon's invasion of the Stormlands, dispatching Harys Swyft to Braavos to treat with the Iron Bank and discovering the body of Pycelle, who was murdered by Varys and his little birds, who also murder Kevan because his competant leadership may stop Cersei from destroying the Lannister-Tyrell alliance and thwart Varys' plans.
SEASON 5 ADAPTATION
Cersei's storyline will be one of the most prominent of Season 5, occupying a lot of screen time and dominating the events in King's Landing.
There haven't been any casting announcements for Taena, Orton Merryweather, Aurane Waters, Gyles Rosby or Harys Swift. It's possible that these roles will be filled by extras, but it's more likely that they'll be written out of the show.
Eliminating Aurane Waters will likely eliminate the Royal Navy storyline, but this is covered because Stannis has already secured the support of the Iron Bank and the need to default on the loans is covered by the Season 4 where Tywin tells Cersei that the Lannisters' gold mines have been exhausted.
The various toadies can be replaced by larger roles for Mace Tyrell, Qyburn and Pycelle (which will help to sell the significance of his death in Episode 10). Mace will probably be named Hand of the King, as there's been no word that Ian Gelder, the actor who plays Kevan will be returning for Season 5 and the actor who plays Mace (Roger Ashton-Griffiths) is a significant enough actor to earn a larger role this season before going to Braavos late in the season. There has also been rumors indicating the Qyburn's role will be expanded from the books, with more specific details revealed regarding his "treatment" of Gregor Clegane.
Speaking of Ser Gregor, I am wavering back and forth on how the skull / Ser Robert Stone storyline will be handled. On the one hand, the whole "secret identity" thing is BS that doesn't fool anyone on paper, so it's likely that they'll just say that Gregor Clegane survived, but on the other hand the monstrous skull is what sells the Martells on the fact that justice had been done for Elia. I think (since I'm not being graded on this...) I'll split the difference and say that Gregor survived, but will be executed later. This is a more satisfying result for the Martells and it will enfuriate them next season when they learn that Gregor will be acting as Cersei's champion in her trial by combat, a move that will accelerate the Sand Snakes' actions in King's Landing, whatever they may be.
All of the Kettleblacks have been written out of Game Of Thrones to this point and there hasn't been any casting news yet for Season 5. With Meryn Trant heading to Braavos with Mace Tyrell, he can't be used as Cersei's pawn in her scheme to frame Margaery. There aren't really any other notable Kingsguard members unless she chooses someone random, Bronn and Jaime are going to Dorne (not that either would help Cersei in this mission) and most of the characters Cersei frames for having affairs with Margaery aren't involved in the show. I suppose she could frame Loras and Marge for having an incestuous affair, but that seems a little... on the nose for even Cersei to try to get away with it, so I'll have to leave the prediction vague until more information is available.
Leaked information from filming indicates that rather than sending him to Dragonstone, Cersei will use the Faith to have Loras Tyrell arrested, probably for being a homosexual. Unless he's executed, this will simultaneously take him out of the picture in the short term, but keep him in the picture in the long term, which may not be an option in the books, depending on the severity of his injuries.
Rather than sending Jaime to oversee the surrender of Riverrun, she'll send him to Dorne to bring Myrcella back to King's Landing. This will be done to enhance the Dorne storyline and make sure that the audience is invested in it as a part of the main storyline. Bronn will accompany Jaime (there's a lot of leaked evidence showing this), so Cersei won't be conspiring against Bronn this season.
Jonathan Pryce has been cast as the High Sparrow and there are many indications that the Sparrows will play a massive role in the events in King's Landing this season, raiding brothels and other sinful establishments and harassing Loras Tyrell (maybe they will go down the incest road, but it's more likely because he's gay) and Littlefinger (who I have to assume Cersei orders back to King's Landing). I expect this storyline to be carried out throughout the season and probably stick pretty close to AFFC and ADWD.
The Walk of Penance has been confirmed and much publicized. I expect that the hallucinations will be included as well, as Charles Dance (Tywin Lannister) has hinted that he'll be back this season (though that may just be as a corpse at his funeral) and the other actors shouldn't be a problem either (Robert Bean (Ned Stark) has hinted that he's interested in returning for flashbacks).
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR CERSEI LANNISTER'S STORY:
Season 5 will open with Cersei dreaming about her encounter with Maggy the Frog, who gives her the Valonqar prophecy. The discovery of Tywin Lannister's body and his funeral will be in Episode 1 and that Cersei will dispatch Jaime to Dorne to bring Myrcella back to King's Landing in Episode 2 or 3. Olenna Tyrell will be returning this season for Tywin's funeral / Tommen and Margaery's wedding, which will happen before Jaime's departure. Qyburn and Pyrcelle will have larger roles this season than they do in AFFC and Qyburn's experiments with Gregor Clegane will be given a much larger focus than they are in the books. The High Sparrow should arrive early in the season and the Sparrows to cause trouble in the name of the Faith throughout the season. Cersei will order Littlefinger back to King's Landing early in the season and he should arrive mid-season. Cersei will meet with the High Sparrow mid-season and authorize the return of the Faith Militant and Poor Fellows. She will dispatch Mace Tyrell and Meryn Trant to Braavos to treat with the Iron Bank in Episode 5 or 6. She will use the Faith to have Loras Tyrell arrested for homosexuality-related "crimes". Throughout the season, Cersei will frame Margaery Tyrell for treason. Margaery will be arrested around Episode 7 and Cersei to be arrested later that episode as the final scene of the episode. Cersei will remain in her cell until the Walk of Penance, which will take place either in Episode 9 or 10. After the Walk of Penance, Cersei will have a scene where the details of her trial by combat are laid out and she's introduced to her champion, Ser Gregor Clegane of the Kingsguard. One of the final scenes of the season, but not the final scene of Episode 10, will be the murder of Pycelle by Varys.
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