ARYA STARK
Arya Stark's story takes place across both AFFC and ADWD and thanks to numerous leaked scenes, photographs and images from filming, it seems as though Season 5 will be sticking very closely to the events in the book.
AFFC opens with Arya arriving in Braavos (instead of her intended destination, the Wall) aboard the ship that she booked passage on with Jaqen's coin at the end of ASOS / Season 4. The captain takes her to the House of Black and White, the headquarters of the Faceless Men (FM), where Arya meets the Kindly Man and the Waif, who teach her about the history and mission of the FM. Arya decides to begin training as a Faceless Man and surrenders her identity (sort of...) by giving up her worldly possessions, though she does hide Needle rather than throwing it away.
Eventually, her training allows her to assume the identity of Cat of the Canals, a young girl who sells oysters on the streets of Braavos. While posing as Cat, she saves Samwell Tarly from a pair of Bravos who are threatening him and learns that her brothre Jon has been elected Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. When Cat learns that Dareon, the singer who accompanied Samwell to Braavos has deserted the NW, she kills him, violating the rules of the Faceless Men. As punishment for violating the rules, Arya is given a potion that causes her to go blind, ending her storyline in AFFC.
Her training picks up in ADWD, as she learns how to function without eyesight. Her sight is restored after she identifies the Kindly Man as the individual who has been randomly attacking her as part of her training. Arya's chapters in ADWD conclude after she successfully kills a merchant by poisoning a coin that the merchant bites to test it's authenticity (the same trick that Jaqen H'ghar uses to kill Pate in AFFC) and she is assigned to work with Izembaro, the master of Mummers.
Ordinarily, I would leave out scenes from The Winds Of Winter, but the Mercy chapter that was released shortly before the start of Season 4 is clearly going to be included in Season 5 in some capacity. While training with Izembaro, Arya assumes the role of Mercedene (aka Mercy), an actress in a play written by Phario Forel (presumably the brother of Syrio Forel) that's based on the events of the first three books (Arya is playing a character based on her sister Sansa). In the audience of the play, Arya spots Harys Swift and his entourage from King's Landing who are in Braavos to treat with the Iron Bank. Of interest to Arya is Raff the Sweetling, who she seduces away from the playhouse, taking him to her room where he kills him by cutting his femoral artery. She then makes him repeat the last words Lommy said to him, before killing him the same way that he killed Lommy.
There has been a large amount of leaked information and officially released footage / images from the filming of Arya's story this season and the images confirm much of the storyline from the books will be included this year. Footage has been released showing Arya arriving at the House of Black and White and the Waif has been confirmed as a character, though the Kindly Man hasn't (more on that later), images of Arya dressed as Cat of the Canals have leaked and casting calls include characters that are almost certainly going to be the Bravos who Arya saves Samwell Tarly from. I expect these storylines to be adapted almost directly from the page to the screen. There have also been photos and interviews indicating that the Mercy chapter will be included this season, though with a different cast of characters.
Arya's first few chapters of arriving at the House of Black and White (HoB&W), choosing to become a FM, hiding Needle and training in the House of Black and White will take place as they did in AFFC with one major exception, which is that the Kindly Man will be replaced by Jaqen H'ghar. The actor who plays Jaqen has been announced as returning for Season 5 and while the character in AFFC remains in Westeros (possibly killing Balon Greyjoy and definitely killing Pate), but I don't expect to see the AFFC prologue or Balon Greyjoy's death (sadly, as I've looked forward to seeing that particular scene play out on-screen for years) on the show and any involvement he might have in the Citadel can wait until Season 6 if it's included. Jaqen provides a familiar face for fans of the show, so bringing him back helps to tie the Faceless Men storyline this year into the main story from previous seasons.
After training at the HoB&W, Arya will assume the role of Cat of the Canals for a few episodes and while I expect a few scenes on her own as Cat, her key scenes will involve Samwell Tarly and Dareon. Dareon hasn't been confirmed for Season 5, but I'm operating on the assumption that he will be involved, but be such a minor character that a casting announcement wasn't necessary. Saving Sam allows him to interact with another member of Jon's family, though Sam doesn't know that's the case and it sets Arya up to kill Dareon, which leads to her being blinded as punishment for breaking the FM's rules. In my opinion, Arya being blinded is an important part of her character development that needs to be included in Season 5 and the only violations that are serious enough for that punishment would be killing Dareon or the "Mercy" killing, which I think will be used as Arya's Season 5 climax. I think that Arya waking up blind will be the last scene of a mid-season episode, probably Episode 5 or 6.
I'm not sure how Arya's blindness training will be presented on-screen (which is one reason why it might be excluded), but I think it will need to be a multiple-episode storyline in order to be sold properly. I expect that she'll regain her vision in Episode 7 or 8.
That leaves the Mercy storyline and her first sanctioned kill to fill out the rest of her storyline, which I think will be combined into one storyline. Mace Tyrell will either be the Hand of the King or the Master of Coin in Season 5. Harys Swift and Gyles Rosby have been written out of GoT, while a relatively famous actor was cast to play Mace Tyrell, meaning that they intend to use him in a larger role than he was used in Season 4.
After the wedding of Margaery and Tommen in AFFC, Cersei takes Jaime's advice and dispatches Mace to lay seige to Storm's End, where he stays until the end of AFFC, when his forces make their way back to King's Landing for Margaery's trial. Later in The Winds Of Winter, Storm's End becomes significant again when it's attacked by Aegon and the Golden Company. I don't think that the siege of Storm's End will be a significant storyline in Season 5 because Aegon isn't being included in GoT. Cersei may dispatch a force to re-take Storm's End, but I think it's also very likely that Storm's End will be completely forgotten. Either way, it won't play any part in Mace's story this season, as photographic evidence leaked during filming proves that his storyline will run through Braavos this season, which means that Mace, or more accurately his guard Meryn Trant, will run straight into Arya's path this season.
In ADWD, while Cersei is imprisoned by the Faith (more on that later), Kevan Lannister dispatches Harys Swyft and a group of Lannister soldiers who previously served under Gregor Clegane to Braavos in order to treat with the Iron Bank regarding the Crown's debts. In TWOW, Swyft and his entourage are attending the play that Arya is peforming in under the guise of Mercy, who lures one of the guards, Raff the Sweetling (who Arya interacted with in A Clash of Kings when he murders her friend Lommy) away from the play and murders him by cutting open his femoral artery. Tycho Nestoris has been confirmed as returning for Season 5 and the actor who plays him has confirmed that he'll be remaining in Braavos this season (instead of going to the Wall, where Tycho goes in ADWD, an unnecessary plotline in the show, as described in my post on Jon Snow), so the Iron Bank storyline is definitely taking place this season.
Arya killed Raff The Sweetling in Episode 1 of Season 4, in a scene that mirrored the scene in A Storm of Swords where she killed The Tickler (whom she had Jaqen kill in Season 2 in place of Weese, who wasn't on the show). Not only did Arya kill Raff in Season 4, but she did it in the same way that she killed him in the Mercy chapter. It's highly unlikely that the show will use the same murder technique again in Season 5 and it's highly unlikely that Arya will seducing anyone on the show, so some sort of hybrid murder technique will be used to off the Raff substitute, Meryn Trant. One thing that I absolutely expect is some bad-ass variation on Syrio Forel's legendary Season 1 line: "What do we say to the God of Death? Not today." It's quite possibly too awesome not to use.
Arya has plenty of reason to kill Meryn Trant (and she doesn't even know about all the horrible things he did to her sister), the member of the Kingsguard who (we assume) murdered Syrio Forel. The show has reiterated this point several times in the last few seasons, most recently when the Hound mocked her because Syrio, who Arya claimed was the greatest fighter that she'd ever seen, was killed by Trant, who is regarded as a joke. The leaks that showed Mace Tyrell in Braavos also showed Meryn Trant there, where he'll be murdered by Arya before the end of the season.
One interesting possibility presented in the trailer is that Meryn Trant will be killed by Arya wearing the face of Mercy. This speculation is the result of a woman seducing an man whose identity can't be confirmed. The woman is new to the show and it's entirely possibly that she is Arya disguised as Mercy and the mystery man in the shot is Meryn Trant.
The reason that I think that the Meryn Trant murder from the Mercy storyline will be combined with her first Faceless Man murder from ADWD is that I view it as the one corner in Arya's storyline that the show could cut to streamline the story. While the completion of the first stage of her training is important to Arya's storyline, killing a random merchant doesn't drive the overall story forward in the way that killing Meryn Trant in the Mercy storyline will. The show is going to be cutting a lot of corners and combining these two chapters would be a great way for Arya to move forward in her training, close out her Season 5 story and set up Arya's storyline for Season 6. The method of killing might be the coin trick from ADWD, but I'm guessing that Arya will choose a more personal, more visceral method of execution for Trant, given their relationship. Also, there's a delicious irony to Meryn Trant being killed in Braavos because he murdered Syrio Forel, the former first sword of Braavos (and if they include the GoT meta-play from TWoW, at a play written by a relative of Syrio's) and the show won't ignore that opportunity.
It should be mentioned that the show may choose to replace the Dareon kill with the Meryn Trant kill. This would work, but the timeline would have to be shifted around considerably and it's unlikely that Arya is in the face-shifting stage of her training before she is blinded, so many more changes would be necessary for this option than the one I predict.
Either Arya's murder of Meryn Trant will be her final scene in Season 5 or the fallout of that murder (which hasn't happened yet in any material available before the publishing of TWoW) will be.
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR ARYA STARK'S STORY:
The captain from Episode 10 of Season 4 will bring Arya to the House of the Black and White. Arya will agree to train as a Faceless Man by Jaqen H'ghar and the Waif. While training, she'll learn the history of the Faceless Men and witness petitioners asking for and receiving their gift (death). Arya's training will continue when she abandons her identity as Arya of House Stark (though she only hides Needle rather than throwing it away) and assuming the identity of Cat of the Canals. As Cat, Arya rescues Samwell Tarly from a pair of Braavos, but violates the rules of the Faceless Men by killing Dareon for deserting the Night's Watch, leading to her being blinded as a punishment (note: this may happen at the end of the season as punishment for killing Trant). After a few episodes of blindness, Arya will earn her eyesight back and be assigned a mission related to Mace Tyrell's mission to the Iron Bank, leading her to kill Meryn Trant, partially for her mission as a Faceless Man, but mostly as revenge for killing Syrio Forel. Her season will either end with the murder of Meryn Trant or with the fallout of that murder, seen from the perspective of Mace Tyrell or in Jaqen reprimanding Arya for violating the rules of the Faceless Men.
Next Week - Cersei Lannister
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