JON SNOW / SAMWELL TARLY
The storylines that ended up at the Wall last season (Jon, Samwell and Stannis / Davos, which I'll cover later) still have a lot of ground left to cover before they're caught up with the rest of the story. While most of the stories have either completed their chapters from A Storm Of Swords (ASOS) and some have dipped into their A Feast For Crows (AFFC) and A Dance With Dragons (ADWD) storylines by the end of Season 4, there are still several chapters (and one major event) left to be covered at the Wall.
Based on the chronology of the books, the climactic battle at the Wall should have taken place somewhere around episode 6 or 7. This wasn't possible due to the logistics of filming the epic episode "The Watchers On The Wall" and the need for the series to extend the Bran storyline (which had burned all the way through ASOS by the end of Season 3), leading to the hit-or-miss (at best) storyline at Craster's Keep and the (outstanding) combination of the two major battles set at the Wall (the Southern and Northern assualts happen separately in ASOS) in Episode 9. The problem that this set up for Season 5 is that there's significantly more of this storyline that will either need to be compressed or excluded this season.
After Stannis arrives at the Wall to help the Night's Watch defeat Mance Rayder's wildling army, his army sets up camp at the Wall and Stannis begins plans to use the unmanned castles along the Wall as his base of operations, having more-or-less abandonded Dragonstone and Storm's End (he still holds them at the time, but both have been lost to him by the end of ADWD). His plan involves legitimizing Jon Snow and naming him the Lord of Winterfell, marrying him to a wildling "princess" named Val (the sister of Mance Rayder's wife, Dalla) and using the strength of that alliance to unite the North (under the Starks) and the Wildlings (who he plans to settle in an abandoned area of the North called the Gift, which is owned by the Night's Watch). Jon considers taking his offer (which won't happen exactly the same way on the show, as Val hasn't been cast, Jon is aware that Bran and Rickon are still alive and Ghost is already south of the wall. It wouldn't surprise me if Stannis still made the offer, offering a bethrothal to his daughter Shireen instead of a marriage to Val), but two events change his mind, the return of his direwolf Ghost and his election of Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.
Through the machinations of Samwell Tarly (and possibly Bloodraven or Bran Stark), Jon Snow is elected Lord Commander after several previous votes ended in a deadlock. After being elected, Jon sends Sam, Gilly and Maester Aemon to Oldtown (which I'll cover later in this post), beheads Janos Slynt for insubordination, provides indirect assistance to Stannis in his war against the Boltons and the Lannisters and sets out on a course of action that simultaneously unites the Night's Watch with the wildlings and alienates them with many powerful houses in the North. This eventually leads to a chaotic situation and Jon Snow's (presumed) murder at the hands of his brothers in the Night's Watch.
With all that story to cover this season, it seems unlikely that the show will be able to cover all of the remaining ground to get to the end of ADWD, but I think that it will happen this year because the storyline doesn't provide another suitable climax otherwise.
LORD COMMANDER JON SNOW
After Stannis' forces arrive at the Wall, the Night's Watch begins to have elections to determine the next Lord Commander. The process is very similar to the process used by the Vatican Conclave to elect a new Pope, in that any member of the NW can be nominated or elected as LC, but they must have two-thirds of the votes cast in any election. There are several front-runners for the job, including Bowen Marsh, Janos Slynt, Denys Mallister and Cotter Pyke. After several votes, it becomes obvious that none of the contenders will get the votes needed if they all remain in the election. When Bowen Marsh endorses Janos Slynt, it becomes obvious that Slynt will eventually persuade Mallister and Pyke (who hate each other as a result of Seagard-Pyke rivalries that pre-date their time in the NW) to drop out and Slynt will be elected as LC. Observing this, Samwell persuades both Mallister and Pyke that Stannis will name their rival LC if the vote isn't resolved soon. Using that leverage and their distaste for Slynt, Sam convinces them to throw their support behind Jon Snow. The plan starts to fall apart but is saved when Lord Mormont's talking raven (many theories believe the raven is under the influence of Bloodraven or Bran) starts squawking "Snow", which the brothers take as an omen, leading to a flood of votes that end with the election of Jon Snow as Lord Commander.
Will the show follow this storyline? Of course they have to and I expect that this part of the story (unlike most of this story) will happen in much the same way that it did in the books. Key players like Janos Slynt and Alliser Thorne have been on the show for years and Bowen Marsh and Cotter Pyke (probably) and Denys Mallister have been cast for Season 5. The actor cast as Denys Mallister (J.J. Murphy) died while filming Season 5 and the role hasn't been re-cast. At this time, I don't know if he'll be written out of the show or if the completed footage will be used to include him or not.
Sam's deception will be included (it's an important part of his character development) in the process somehow (this will be easier if the Mallister footage is included, but that might not be possible either way), but Mormont's talking raven was never featured as a known gimmick on the show the way that it was in the books. If Jon's election goes down roughly the same way as it did in the books, Jon will still need one final kicker to put him over the top and I theorize that it will come from a highly unexpected source... Alliser Thorne.
Alliser Thorne has been a thorn (Get it? Subtlety!) in Jon Snow's side since he arrived at Castle Black, even to the point that he openly accuses Jon of being a traitor during the battle at the Wall, sending him on a suicide mission to kill Mance Rayder in hopes that he won't survive. Throughout the course of ADWD, their relationship doesn't improve, but two changes in Season 4 indicate (to me at least) that his relationship with Jon might change slightly this season. The first change is the moment during Episode 9 when Thorne acknowledges that he should have listened to Jon all along (instead of being an almost cartoonish antagonist during Season 4) regarding the approaching wildling army. I could be imagining things, but it seems like the grudging respect Thorne shows Snow at that point could be an important piece of foreshadowing. The other change is the complete (and fully known to the NW through Samwell and Gilly as well as the NW on the top of the Wall during the battle) cowardice displayed by Janos Slynt during the battle at the Wall. My theory (which is admittedly based on nothing by circumstantial evidence) is that Thorne will begin as a supporter of Slynt, but endorse Jon at the last second after Pyke and Mallister are eliminated as candidates. Why? Because Slynt may still hate Jon, but he respects him in a way that he can never respect Slynt after the battle. Slynt has the right political connections, but he would be a terrible Lord Commander and Slynt knows it. With solid alternative LC's in Mallister and Pyke removed, I think that Slynt will put aside his hatred for Jon and do what's right for the NW.
As far as the timeline of the series goes, Jon needs to be elected Lord Commander very early on in Season 5. His election sets a lot of the story in motion, so in my opinion, it should happen at the end of Episode 2. Of course, knowing the way that the show dragged it's feet on this storyline in Season 4, they might wait until the end of Season 4. Of course, that would go against my theory of Jon's death being the climax of Episode 10 / Season 5, so I'll assume for the moment that Jon's election is the last scene of Episode 2.
JON SNOW AS LORD COMMANDER
In Jon Snow's first few chapters in ADWD, there several key moments and one major plot development that I expect to be included in the show. Jon will have several scenes with Stannis (two remarkably different characters having tense / funny interactions with one another is GoT's bread and butter) before Stannis departs for his own storyline, though he won't be able to stick around at the Wall for too long after Jon's election if the rest of the Northern storyline is going to take place this season, so he'll probably leave the Wall by episode 5. Janos Slynt's execution will definitely take place this season. Given that the moment establishes Jon as LC with the NW and with Stannis, it has to happen shortly after he's elected LC, possibly in the next episode.
Also happening in the period between Jon's election and Stannis' departure will be the faked execution of Mance Rayder. I think this scene will be included because the relationship between Jon and Melisandre is very important (and that look that the two shared in Episode 10 last season) and I expect Mance will play an important role in Theon's storyline this season, as he does in the books (especially since the absence of actors cast in the roles of Wyman Manderlay and Lady Dustin leaves a charisma vacuum in Winterfell that Mance could nicely fill). Since Rattleshirt is an established character on the show, I expect the switcheroo will happen exactly as it happens in the books, probably in the same episode as Slynt's execution, though maybe they parse those out two seperate episodes. Either way, one of these events will probably take place in the same episode as the scene where Jon sends Samwell away from the Wall.
(Note: Since I wrote the rough draft of this essay, the trailer seems to indicate that Rattleshirt will be leading a force of Wildlings at Hardhome (though they COULD be arriving to surrender at the Wall). If that's the case, a different wildling will be used for the switcheroo. It could even be a random wildling for all that it matters. Hopefully it won't be Tormund Giantsbane, as his character should have other things to do this year.)
There are many reasons why Jon sends Samwell to Oldtown to become a Maester of the Citadel (other than the actual, stated reason). Sam is accompanied by Gilly, "her baby" (it's actually Mance Rayder's baby) and Maester Aemon. Mance's son and Maester Aemon both have king's blood, which makes them the probable target of Melisandre's sacrifices. This scene is the launching point for Sam's Season 5 storyline, so it will happen essentially the same the way on the show, with the exception of the baby switch, which can't happen because Mance's child isn't involved in this show (as far as we know).
JON SNOW - A UNITER, NOT A DIVIDER
Much of the middle portion of Jon's ADWD story is spent negotiating an alliance between the Night's Watch and the wildlings. This is probably the easiest area in Jon's story (and maybe all of the Season 5 storylines) to compress / cut given where Season 4 left off. Jon's fifth chapter in the book deals mainly with Jon recruiting wildings to help at Castle Black. That's it. Now mind you, as show-Dagmer would say, it's a good speech, but since all the wildlings that cross the Wall are still at Castle Black, it could be given at any point before they leave for the Gift. Without the internal monologuing that works in print but not on the screen, this scene will probably take two or three minutes if it's included at all.
Later, Jon sends Val (who isn't in the show) on a mission to locate Tormund Giantsbane (who is a prisoner at the Wall), so unless they change some of the characters around (sending Tormund to find Varymyr for example), that storyline has to be excised entirely. The follow-up scene where Jon lets the wildlings led by Tormund through the Wall would also either be eliminated or altered along the same lines.
Jon also arranges for the Magnar of Thenn to marry Alys Karstark (I'll cover her part in the ADWD story next). Given that the Thenns are cannibal psychos on the show, it seems unlikely that Jon would marry the head cannibal psycho to a highborn Lady of the North. They could substitute in a different wildling leader, but it's more likely that the Alys Karstark storyline is excised entirely from the show.
One other plot point that will be handled quickly or ignored is Jon's interaction with Tycho Nestoris, a representative from the Iron Bank. Tycho was introduced in Season 4 and he's already providing funding and support for Stannis. Mark Gatiss will be returning as Tycho this season, but in an interview he revealed that he won't be filming in Iceland (where the Castle Black scenes are filmed) this year and he'll be involved in Cersei's and Arya's storyline in Braavos this season. Since the Iron Bank is already giving support to Stannis, it's not necessary for Tycho to travel to Castle Black and if Jon needs their support it could easily be handled in his conversations with Stannis this season, so this storyline can be effectively dropped from the show.
THE "STARK" IN WINTERFELL, BRAN AND RICKON
A large part of Jon's story in ADWD (and his eventual downfall) revolves around his and Melisandre's actions when he's informed that Ramsay Bolton will be marrying Jon's sister Arya and become the Lord of Winterfell. The audience of the books and the show know that Arya is in Braavos by this point and the books have revealed that Jeyne Poole is being forced to pose as Arya (speculation on this will be covered in my post about Theon). Shortly after he's informed (via a letter from Ramsay) of Arya's situation, Melisandre tells Jon that she saw a vision in her flames of Arya fleeing to Castle Black. In response, Melisandre sends Mance Rayder and a group of spearwives to Winterfell on a rescue mission and Jon doesn't stop her (again, more on that in Theon's post). It's later revealed that the girl in Mel's vision is actually Alys Karstark, the heir to Karhold, who is fleeing to Castle Black to avoid her uncles scheme to force her into a marriage that would strip her of her rights. Jon arranges for Alys to marry the Magnar of Thenn. The Thenns and Alys then depart for Karhold (and I'm sure that will turn out well).
As I've stated before, I expect that the Alys Karstark storyline will be cut from Game of Thrones. I think the show will find some other pretext for Jon to allow the rescue mission to Winterfell or he'll arrange for it himself. The only other thing that's gained from Alys' presence at the Wall is the knowledge that Arnolf Karstark intends to betray Stannis. If that's part of Stannis' Season 5 storyline (unlikely), the show could come up with a way for the betrayal to be revealed without adding a story arc.
One major change that could affect Jon's storyline this season is that Jon is aware that his brothers Bran and Rickon are still alive. In the books, Sam doesn't tell Jon that he met Bran in the Shadow Tower, so Jon still believes that Theon killed his brothers. Sam telling Jon that they were still alive has already caused him to go looking for Bran while they were at Craster's Keep, but they never meet up. Given all that's happened since, it's unlikely that Jon would send another mission to find Bran, but Sam probably also informed Jon that Rickon wasn't with Bran, Hodor and the Reeds, so it should be safe for Jon to assume that Rickon is somewhere south of the Wall. In my opinion, that knowledge could be the basis for Davos' storyline this season, as Jon / Stannis could task him with finding Rickon, since Wyman Manderly isn't around this season to do it instead. There's nothing to base this one, but I do think it works. I'll write more about this theory in my Stannis / Davos post.
HARDHOME, THE PINK LETTER AND THE IDES OF MARSH
A number of factors contribute to Jon's downfall as Lord Commander, but the culmination is the failed rescue mission to Hardhome and the receipt of the Pink Letter, allegedly sent by Ramsay Bolton.
Hardhome is an abandoned port city in the lands north of the Wall. After Stannis' intervention in the battle at the Wall, thousands of wildlings flee to Hardhome under the leadership of a wood's witch named Mother Mole. When he's informed of this situation, Jon dispatches ships from Eastwatch to rescue the wildlings. It's viewed by some as a reasonable decision, but others believe that it's a futile gesture, which it turns out to be. Later on in the story, Jon receives a raven from Cotter Pyke saying that the mission was a failure. The wildlings refuse to board the NW ships (they had previously been raided by slavers who took them to Essos) and the wildlings and NW are attacked by wights. In short, it's a disaster, but instead of reluctantly cutting bait, Jon doubles down, organizing a rescue mission with the NW and wildings to be led by Tormund Giantsbane. The men of the NW view the mission as a disaster and a betrayal of Jon's vows. This, in and of itself, would threaten his position as Lord Commander, but what came next would seal the deal.
Throughout ADWD, one of Jon's main concerns was the perception that he was doing too much to help Stannis in his war against the Lannisters. This perception causes Cersei to conspire to murder Jon (I'll cover this in my post on Cersei) and Mance Rayder's rescue mission to Winterfell causes Jon to make an enemy of the Boltons, assuming the authenticity of the Pink Letter (it's widely believed to either be a hoax or written by a misinformed Ramsay Bolton), a letter delivered to Jon informing him that unless he met Ramsay's conditions (which were unreasonable), the Bolton armies would march on the Night's Watch. Whatever the origins of the Pink Letter, it's impact on Jon is disastrous. When Jon reads the PL to the men of the Night's Watch it's the final straw for some of his top officers. Chaos soon erupts as a night in service to Stannis named Ser Patrek attacks a giant named Wun Wun in an attempt to steal the wilding princess, Val. After attacking Wun Wun, Patrek is torn limb from limb, setting Stannis' men, the Night's Watch, the wildings at the Wall and Wun Wun into a riot. With everyone distracted, several members of the Night's Watch, led by Bowen Marsh stab Jon repeatedly. Jon's last chapter in ADWD ends with Jon losing consciousness. He's presumed dead, though it's unlikely he'll stay that way.
My theory is that Jon's time as Lord Commander will be shortened significantly and presented entirely in Season 5, with his assassination taking place in Episode 10. Leaked filming information indicates that a version of the failed rescue mission to Hardhome will take place during Episode 8. Since it has now been indicated that Jon Snow will be leading the mission to Hardhome and that said mission will end in disaster when the Night's King and an army of White Walkers and wights arrive, I think that the "For The Watch" moment will occur when Jon refuses to allow the NW to retreat. I don't think that the Pink Letter will be involved in Season 5 or that it won't be directly involved in Jon's downfall. It's also possible that Jon won't be killed until Season 6 and while it does make sense that he won't be able to film any Season 6 scenes without his return becoming known, I'm going to stick with my current theory for the time being. If Melisandre is present in Hardhome, her resurrecting Jon could be the last scene of Season 5, but I can't predict that until I see some evidence of her presence on that set.
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR JON SNOW'S STORY:
Season 5 will open with the Night's Watch holding the first votes to determine the new Lord Commander. Stannis will offer to legitimize Jon, make him the Lord Of Winterfell and betroth him to Shireen. Jon won't take the offer, at first due to his vows / the rights of his brothers and sisters and later because Samwell's intervention, Denys Mallister's death and Alliser Thorne's endorsement / refusal to allow Janos Slynt to ascend lead to Jon being elected as the Lord Commander. Jon will behead Slynt for insubordination, send Sam, Gilly and Aemon to Oldtown, advise Stannis on winning the North, oversee the faked execution of Mance Rayder and form a fragile alliance with the wildlings that have crossed the Wall, with Tormund Giantsbane as a liason. Jon will have several interactions with Melisandre, culminating with her sending Mance on a mission to Winterfell to rescue Arya. Jon will lead a rescue party to Hardhome, which will end disastrously. His refusal to retreat from Hardhome will lead to his betrayal and death in a chaotic scene at the end of Episode 10. Whether or not he's revived before the end of the season has yet to be determined, but it would make sense.
SAMWELL TARLY
After engineering Jon's election as Lord Commander, Sam is sent to Oldtown (along with Aemon and Gilly) to train at the Citadel and become the Night's Watch's maester. The trio and a a NW recruiter / singer named Dareon travel to Braavos where they seek passage to Oldtown. Before they can leave Braavos, Sam is rescued by Arya when he's confronted by a pair of Bravos, Dareon defects (and is later killed by Arya) and Maester Aemon dies. After Aemon's death, Sam secures passage to Braavos, makes love to Gilly, reacts poorly to "betraying his vows" and eventually "mans up" and apologizes with Gilly for his behavior (after being threatened by the Captain taking him to Oldtown). Sam's story in AFFC ends with his arrival at the Citadel in Oldtown, where he meets with novices at the Citadel, a Maester named Marwyn who departs to advise Dany and the Faceless Man who previously portrayed Jaqen H'ghar posing as a novice named Pate, who he killed in the AFFC prologue.
In terms of broad strokes, I expect the show to stick closely to Samwell's AFFC storyline, with the only changes coming as a result of changes from Season 4 and extra interactions that the show may add to flesh out his storyline.
For starters, I don't expect Sam to be as upset by Jon's plan to send him to Oldtown. Sam fought in the battle at Castle Black on the show (he arrived after the battle in the books) and his relationship with Gilly is much further along than it was at this point in the books. In short, Sam is more courageous (which is not to say that the show won't forget that inexplicably, as they've reset characters motivations for no good reason in the past) at this point in the show than he is in the books. I don't expect him to be happy about abandoning his friends (though Pyp and Grenn did die already), but he won't panic the way that he does in AFFC. Gilly and Aemon will be sent to Oldtown to protect them from the war / Melisandre. The baby-switch storyline will be dropped, as Val and her baby won't be included in the show, so Gilly's mood should be significantly improved during the trip.
To flesh out his storyline, I think the show will add some interactions with characters Sam never meets in AFFC, in particular Davos and Salladhor Saan, who I think will play a role in getting Sam to Eastwatch and Braavos because I think they'll be heading in the same direction, so why not?
Assuming Dareon or a Dareon-equivalent is part of Season 5, the scenes in Braavos should play out pretty much the same way that they do in AFFC. A scene that very much sounds like the Bravos bullying Sam and Arya as Cat saving the day has been described in filming leaks and interactions with Dareon are important plot points in Sam and Arya's AFFC storyline and overall development, as is Aemon's death. Aemon's final scenes (as well as the scenes involving Aemon deducing the lie of Lightbringer and telling Jon about it) are also very important in debunking the Stannis as Azor Ahai theory, which is important to the entire story, but especially Jon and Dany.
Maester Aemon's death causes the grief-stricken Sam and Gilly to consummate their relationship physically, causing Sam to panic about breaking his vows, only apologizing to her for his behavior after the caption of the ship threatens to drop Sam off in Dorne if he doesn't. There's no doubt in my mind that the love-scene will happen, as the show has been building up their romantic relationship more overtly than the books did (they kissed in Episode 9, which doesn't happen in AFFC), but I think Sam will be more accepting of what he's done on the show. This is in part because he's played a more courageous role in the events at the Wall than he did in the books, but also because the show has featured multiple scenes of Sam looking for loopholes in his NW vows that would make it alright. I think that he'll feel guilty or morose about it, but I doubt that the captain will need to threaten him to get him to "man up".
On an un-related side note, how perfect would Salladhor Saan be as the Captain who takes Sam and Gilly to Oldtown? He's from the Summer Isles (like the Captain in AFFC), his attitudes towards amore are the same and he's the Captain of a ship (also, every time he shows up on-screen he's pure dynamite, so he'll be involved in S5 somehow). Unfortunately, I can't engineer a scenario where he's in the position to take Sam and Gilly to Oldtown. It makes perfect sense for him to take the crew to Braavos as part of a mission to get Davos wherever he's going in S5 (unless he travels by land), but if he was available to take Sam to Oldtown, Sam wouldn't have to have a prolonged stay in Braavos. It's possible that the show could engineer a reason why they would have to stay in Braavos (an autumn storm or something), but I don't have anything to base that on at this time, so I have to assume it's a different Captain.
A scene in the trailer seems to indicate that Maester Aemon dies before leaving for Braavos and is given a NW / Targaryen funeral pyre, so I'm going to revise my theory that Aemon dies on the way to Eastwatch and that Sam sleeps with Gilly on the ship to Braavos.
I expect Sam's story to end with their arrival at Oldtown, with the Oldtown storyline being saved for Season 6. I think that Marwyn may be cut from the show as one of many ways that the show cuts through the Meereenese knot, but with characters from the Wall, the Faceless Men, The Reach, The Westerlands, the Citadel and Dorne all interacting with one another in an intriguing conspiracy / mystery story, I don't think that Oldtown gets cut from the show. I don't think we'll see it this year though, as it would require new sets, locations and character castings that haven't been announced yet, but which would be perfect for starting a new season.
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR SAMWELL TARLY'S STORY:
Sam will use deception to get Jon Snow elected as Lord Commander. He'll be dispatched to Oldtown by way of Braavos, along with Gilly, a Dareon-equivalent and Maester Aemon, taking the mission with less distress than he did in AFFC. Aemon will die on the trip to Eastwatch and be given a NW funeral and a Targaryen funeral pyre. After Maester Aemon dies, Sam and Gilly consummate their relationship on the way to Braavos, which Sam handles much better than he does in the books. Before arriving in Braavos, he'll have new interactions with Davos and Salladhor Saan. In Braavos, Sam will be rescued by Arya, fight with Dareon and be rescued by a captain who agrees to take him and his companions to Oldtown. His season will end somehwere in episodes 8-10, when his ship arrives in Oldtown, though I don't think we'll see any more of Oldtown than possibly a CGI rendering ala the show's Season 4 introduction to Braavos.
Next week - Daenerys Targaryen
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