HOUSE MARTELL
House Martell and Dorne in general are slowly introduced in ASOIAF, mentioned only in passing in A Game Of Thrones, but later becoming more important when Tyrion betrothes Myrcella to Trystane Martell in A Clash of Kings, but much more significant with the arrival and death of Oberyn Martell in A Storm of Swords. It isn't until AFFC that the story actually takes us to Dorne, however, with POV chapters from Arianne Martell, Kingsguard knight Arys Oakheart and Doran Martell's personal guard Areo Hotah. ADWD also has a Dornish storyline told from Quentyn Martell's POV.
Areo's first POV chapter begins with Dorne in an uproar over the death of Oberyn Martell. Doran Martell, the Prince of Dorne is visited by three of the Sand Snakes (a nickname given to Oberyn's bastard daughters), Obara, Nymeria, Tyene and his daughter, Princess Arianne. Obara wants to lead Dornish invasions of Oldtown and King's Landing. Nymeria wants to assassinate Cersei, Jaime, Tywin and Tommen Lannister. Tyene asks Doran to marry Myrcella to Trystane and crown Myrcella the Queen of Westeros in the Dornish tradition (Myrcella is older than Tommen and in Dorne, the oldest surviving child inherits regardless of gender, whereas in the rest of Westeros male children inherit ahead of female children).
Doran refuses the Sand Snakes and has them imprisoned to prevent them from acting independently, but he doesn't imprison Arianne, who carries out a variation on Tyene's plot, commonly referred to as the Queenmaker (QM) plot.
Arys Oakheart is the Kingsguard knight assigned to protect Myrcella while she was in Dorne and he has fallen in love with Arianne Martell. Arianne manipulates Arys into assisting her in a plot to crown Princess Myrcella Queen and start a war between Dorne and the Lannisters. With the help of Arys and a number of other conspirators, Arianne spirits Myrcella out of Sunspear and prepares to put her on a ship to Hellholt, where she'll be crowned. When the group arrives at the ship, they're confronted by Areo Hotah, who had been informed of the plot and a dozen crossbowmen. Arys charges at Hotah, getting riddled with arrows before Hotah cuts him down. In the confusion, a Dornish knight named Darkstar attempts to kill Myrcella, who survives by random luck, but loses an ear in the attack. Darkstar escapes but the other surviving conspirators are arrested.
Arianne spends a lengthy period of time imprisoned by Doran, who eventually releases her and explains that he has freed the Sand Snakes and the other members of her conspiracy, though they have been taken out of the picture in various ways. Doran reveals to Arianne that she had been secretly betrothed to Viserys Targaryen, but since he was killed in the Dothraki Sea, Arianne's younger brother Quentyn has been sent to Essos to marry Danerys Targaryen and bring her and her armies to Westeros.
Quentyn successfully arrives in Meereen and presents himself to Dany, but unfortunately his timing couldn't be worse, as she is planning to marry Hizdahr zo Loraq in order to quell the uprising inside Meereen and Slaver's Bay. Dany doesn't send Quentyn away, however, telling him that it's still possible that they may end up going to Westeros together, but that hope is squashed when Dany takes him to see her imprisoned dragons and his answers reveal to her that he doesn't have it in himself to be the conquerer Dany needs him to be. After Drogon returns to the fighting pits and Dany flies away on his back, Quentyn conspires with sellswords to try to steal and ride one of her dragons, in the hopes that doing so will prove himself a worthy husband. He does seem to be having success taming Viserion with a whip, but Rhaegal attacks him from behind, burning him to a crisp. He survives for a brief period of time before eventually dying from his wounds.
The news of Quentyn's death is not known in Dorne in the last Areo Hotah POV chapter in ADWD, where Doran meets with Arianne and the Sand Snakes, where he reveals that along with sending Balon Swann to Dorne with Gregor Clegane's skull, Cersei also intends for him to bring Myrcella, Trystane and Doran back to King's Landing and have Trystane murdered by soldiers posing as bandits in league with Tyrion. In response to his news, Doran dispatches them on various missions that will advance the Martell cause (for better or more likely for much worse). Obara is to lead Swann in pursuit of Darkstar to avenge the attack on Myrcella, Nymeria (who wants to murder Cersei, Jaime and Tommen) is being sent to King's Landing to sit on Tommen's Small Council (seriously, Doran?) and Tyene is being sent to King's Landing to join the Faith and get close to the new High Septon. It's also very obvious that another Sand Snake, Sarella has infiltrated the Citadel in Oldtown, disguised as a man and training to become a Maester under the name of Alleras (I know, right?). Arianne is instructed to remain with Doran, though in preview chapters from Winds, it's revealed that she's been sent to meet with Jon Connington and Aegon.
JAIME LANNISTER
One of the first pieces of leaked information about Season 5 was an audition video featuring an actress from Lost, auditioning to be one of the Sand Snakes. The audition tape was interesting for many reasons, but the most mind-blowing reveal was that Jaime Lannister was going to Dorne, a location that he never visits in the books. It was speculated and later officially revealed that Bronn would be accompanying him into Dorne as well (in the books he is mentioned frequently but not seen on page after turning down Tyrion's request to be his champion).
In AFFC and ADWD, Jaime spends a few chapters in King's Landing, attending his father's funeral and his *cough* nephew Tommen's wedding before being sent to the Riverlands to oversee the surrender of various castles and wrap up the end of the War of the 5 Kings. After leaving King's Landing, Jaime first travels to Harrenhal, where he meets with Ser Bonifer (who I think will represent the Faith at Cersei's trial by combat) and then Darry where he meets with Lancel, who renounces his title and decides to join the Faith. Jaime then travels to Riverrun where he negotiates the surrender of House Tully, unsuccessfully with the Blackfish and then successfully with Lord Edmure. Edmure surrenders Riverrun to Jaime, but not before allowing the Blackfish to escape. Jaime sends Edmure to Casterly Rock where he'll be held prisoner and then departs for Raventree. At Raventree, he negotiates the surrender of House Blackwood, ending the War of the Five Kings. As he travels back to King's Landing, Jaime is approached by Brienne, who claims that she's found Sansa Stark, but is actually taking him to Lady Stoneheart. Other than the encounter with Brienne and the various Winds of Winter plots that were set up, the most significant moment in Jaime's chapters (and possibly the only aspect that will end up on the show) is when Jaime receives a letter from a desperate Cersei, begging him to return to King's Landing and fight for her in her Trial By Combat. Jaime burns the letter, an act that essentially ends his relationship with Cersei.
SEASON 5 ADAPTATION
According to Season 5 interviews, we'll get more in-depth information about the fate of Gregor Clegane this season than we do in AFFC, specifically what Dr. Frankenstein procedures uses to remove Gregor's head and still have him available as Ser Robert Strong (or Gregor Clegane as he'll probably be referred to on the show). The status of Gregor's head will be the first part of the Dorne storyline this season, as Cersei will send the head to Dorne in one of the first episodes of the season.
Gregor's head will be traveling to Dorne with Jaime Lannister and Bronn. This is backed up by a mountain (get it?) of evidence showing that these two will be going to Dorne in a major departure from AFFC (even Bronn has a storyline that keeps him near King's Landing in AFFC). The trailer for S5 reveals the reason why Cersei sends Jaime to Dorne when a box from Dorne arrives and opens revealing the head of a venomous snake holding a necklace belonging to Princess Myrcella. The box has been sent (or is designed to look like it was sent) by the Sand Snakes, Oberyn Martell's bastard daughters, as a threat to the life of Myrcella. This implied threat will prompt Cersei to send Jaime on some sort of rescue mission.
Three of the Sand Snakes have been cast for this season and they'll mostly have the same roles that they do in AFFC and ADWD. The on-screen Sand Snakes are Tyene, Nymeria and Obara. There are other Sand Snakes, but they are either too young for the Game or in Oldtown (Sallera = Allares) and are unlikely to play major roles in S5. Arianne Martell has been written out of the show and there is strong evidence from trailers and promotional materials indicating that Ellaria Sand will replace her on the show, abandoning Ellaria's pacifist role from ADWD.
Doran Martell will remain the patient schemer from the books, though his plans may be accelerated by the necessity of the show's ramped-up pace and his plans involving Quentyn and Arianne will definitely be changed, as neither Martell heir will be involved in the show. Instead, the role of Doran's heir and the Prince of Dorne will be filled by Doran's youngest (and on the show) only child, Trystane Martell, who is betrothed to (and according to leaks from filming very much in love with) Princess Myrcella.
Rounding out the major players in Dorne this season are Doran's personal bodyguard Areo Hotah and a mystery cast member who is unexpectedly in Dorne, which isn't where he or she is supposed to be this season (I'll get to him later).
There are two major plots that take place in Dorne, which I'll refer to as the Queenmaker (QM) plot and the Fire And Blood (F&B) plot and both plots will be included this season in one capacity or another.
With Ellaria assuming the role of Arianne Martell and Arianne's co-conspirators being replaced by some or all of the Sand Snakes, I expect the Queenmaker plot to go down very similarly to how it went in AFFC. There won't be an Arys Oakheart substitute or Darkstar. I don't expect any major characters to be killed in the process of the QM plot (though maybe one of the Sand snakes or Ellaria will die as a result to show that the scheme had consequences). I also don't expect Myrcella to be maimed. I'm not sure what role Trystane will play in the QM plot, if any, but I think that Jaime and Bronn will work with Doran and Areo to stop the plot before Myrcella can be crowned, with many fight sequences taking place in the process, including those that have already been seen in the trailer.
Given the show's advanced pace, it's possible that Myrcella does end up getting crowned and dies as a result of the QM plot. The details of the Valonqar prophecy in show-canon will be key in predicting where this story will be headed and since Myrcella is probably doomed already, the show may just cut to the chase and take care of that "loose end" this season rather than take up time later. Bronn may also be doomed in this storyline, as it's unclear what role he'll play in the last two books / seasons and characters that exist on borrowed time don't last long on this show (for example, Roz and Locke, so watch out Olyvar and Myranda, the bell may toll for thee this year as well).
Another sign that Myrcella might not make it out of Season 5 alive is that the elimination of Quentyn Martell, Arianne Martell and Aegon Targaryen from the show will likely mean that Trystane Martell, the Prince of Dorne will need to be the focal point of a hybrid of the Fire And Blood plots from AFFC and ADWD. Since Trystane is both betrothed to and in love with Myrcella, the only way for him to fill that role is if Myrcella dies.
So I'm going to go ahead and make that prediction now... Myrcella... gold shall be your crown (from the Sand Snakes) and gold shall be your shroud. Sorry, but Myrcella Baratheon will die as a result of the Queenmaker plot this season.
I don't know who will kill her, how or why. If she does die as a result of the QM plot, I would expect it to be the final scene of an episode in the middle of the season, episode 5, 6 or 7.
I also think that one of the Dornish characters will die as a result of Myrcella's death. To figure out which one, I'll rely on the source material to eliminate a few candidates. Tyene and Nymeria are sent to King's Landing in ADWD to join the Faith and Tommen's Small Council, so it seems likely that they'll survive to play that role in Season 6. Ellaria's role in Winds is unknown, but if she's taking on Arianne's role, she's likely to survive the season. Plus, she's a notable actress and a known character from Season 4. While that's an argument for her death having more impact, I think it will instead be a reason to keep her on the show for next season. Obara is sent on a mission to hunt down Darkstar in a storyline that has been dropped from the show, so I think she's the best candidate to die in response to Myrcella's death.
The F&B plot will need to be significantly altered from AFFC. Doran can't plot to marry Arianne to Viserys or send Quentyn to marry Danerys since Arianne and Quentyn aren't involved in the show. If the F&B plot is going to be included (and it doesn't make sense for it not to be), it will need to involve Doran's only son Trystane and it will need to be a modification of either the original F&B plot or the Aegon plot.
There's a lot of speculation regarding Trystane's role this season, with half of the speculators expecting him to be Aegon in disquise and the other expecting him to simply be the heir to Dorne, but be intended to marry Dany. In my opinion, the Aegon storyline will be dropped completely from the show because Aegon's story hasn't been told thoroughly enough, he wasn't mentioned in the House of the Undying and he won't be involved in Tyrion's story this season. It would be much easier for the show to have Trystane end the season betrothed to Dany than it would be to introduce a character of that signifigance out of the blue with the pretense that he'd always been there, just in disguise. The show simply hasn't laid out the groundwork for Aegon the way that the books did.
My prediction also ties into a reported "mystery cast member" appearing in Dorne during filming and the reporter who noticed this arrival being instructed not to name the character (meaning it's not Jaime or Bronn). I think that this mystery character is Varys. After losing Tyrion in Volantis, I believe that Varys will stop in Dorne on his way back to King's Landing to murder Pycelle (and apparantly Kevan Lannister, who is returning this season). I think that the Doran Martell's scheming will be combined with Varys' and Illyrio's scheming (possibly in a retro-fit manner that isn't exactly cohesive, but oh well) from the start of the series to create a conspiracy to marry Dany to Trystane Martell upon her arrival in Westeros, giving her a powerful ally in Dorne and a foothold in Westeros.
I believe that the F&B conspiracy be revealed after the failed Queenmaker plot and that Ellaria and the surviving Sand Snakes will be made aware of the conspiracy in the final scenes in the Dornish storyline, when Doran sends Nymeria and Tyene to King's Landing with Jaime and Bronn while Trystane and Ellaria will remain in Dorne to prepare for Dany's arrival.
MY SEASON 5 PREDICTIONS FOR DORNE / JAIME LANNISTER'S STORIES:
Jaime's story will open with the funeral for his father, Tywin Lannister. Shortly after the funeral and Tommen and Margaery's wedding, Cersei will show Jaime a package received from Dorne containing a snake holding Myrcella's necklace in it's fangs. In response, Cersei will send Jaime to Dorne to rescue Myrcella.
Before Jaime arrives in Dorne, Doran Martell will meet with three of Oberyn Martell's bastard daughters, known as the Sand Snakes, Nymeria, Tyene and Obara and Oberyn's paramour Ellaria Sand. Each will present a plan for revenge against the Lannisters that Doran rejects.
The Sand Snakes and Ellaria sneak Princess Myrcella out of Sunspear, intending to crown her and start a war between Dorne and the Lannisters. The scheme will go badly due to the intervention of Areo Hotah, Jaime Lannister and Bronn. Myrcella and Obara Sand will be killed in the confusion.
In the aftermath of the Queenmaker plot, Doran Martell will meet with Varys as they finalize their conspiracy to betroth Prince Trystane to Daenerys Targaryen, arranging a marriage and Dornish alliance to be enacted when she arrives in Westeros. After explaining the plot to Trystane, Ellaria and the remaining Sand Snakes, Doran dispatches Nymeria to King's Landing to take his seat on the Small Council and Tyene to King's Landing to infiltrate the Faith Militant, while Ellaria and Trystane remain in Sunspear to prepare for the arrival of Dany.
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